2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – 65-69 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 65-69 in Ontario

1. 9,201 of 9,201 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 17% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 11,113 of 11,113 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,912 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 13,346 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 17% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 9,201 of 855,430 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

9,201 ÷ 855,430 = 0.01076 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 100,170 deaths from All Causes among 7,710,406 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

100,170 ÷ 7,710,406 = 0.01299 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

855,430 X 0.01299 = 11,113 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

9,201 – 11,113 = -1,912

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

9,201 ÷ 11,113 = 0.8273

This reveals 1,912 lives saved and is 82.73% of what we expected (a decrease of 17%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

58,336 ÷ 5,370,426 = 0.01086 (5-yr CDR)

855,430(2022 pop) X 0.01086 = 9,292 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9,201 – 9,292 = -91 or 91 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

9,201 ÷ 9,292 = 0.9893 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

6,225,856 X 0.01299 = 80,883 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

67537 – 80,883 = -13,346 or 13,346 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

67,537 ÷ 80,883 = 0.8343 or a decrease of 17%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.