2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80-84 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80-84 in Ontario

1. 16,458 of 16,458 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 17% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 19,756 of 19,756 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 3,298 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 21,516 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 17% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 16,458 of 342,057 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

16,458 ÷ 342,057 = 0.04811 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 213,048 deaths from All Causes among 3,688,731 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

213,048 ÷ 3,688,731 = 0.05776 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

342,057 X 0.05776 = 19,756 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

16,458 – 19,756 = -3,298

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

16,458 ÷ 19,756 = 0.8329

This reveals 3,298 lives saved and is 83.29% of what we expected (a decrease of 17%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

105,353 ÷ 2,139,523 = 0.04924 (5-yr CDR)

342,057(2022 pop) X 0.04924 = 16,843 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

16,458 – 16,843 = -385 or 385 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

16,458 ÷ 16,843 = 0.9769 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,481,580 X 0.05776 = 143,327 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

121811 – 143,327 = -21,516 or 21,516 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

121,811 ÷ 143,327 = 0.8497 or a decrease of 15%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.