2022 Deaths – All Causes – Pre-school Girl – 0-4 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for pre-school girls aged 0-4 in Ontario

1. 334 of 334 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 11% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 374 of 374 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 40 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 352 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 11% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many pre-school girls aged 0-4 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 334 of 348,126 pre-school girls aged 0-4 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

334 ÷ 348,126 = 0.00096 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,509 deaths from All Causes among 5,132,309 pre-school girls aged 0-4 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,509 ÷ 5,132,309 = 0.00107 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

348,126 X 0.00107 = 374 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

334 – 374 = -40

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

334 ÷ 374 = 0.8856

This reveals 40 lives saved and is 88.56% of what we expected (a decrease of 11%) in deaths from All Causes among pre-school girls aged 0-4 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,317 ÷ 2,449,556 = 0.00095 (5-yr CDR)

348,126(2022 pop) X 0.00095 = 329 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

334 – 329 = 5 or 5 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

334 ÷ 329 = 1.0037 or an increase of 0%

for deaths from All Causes among pre-school girls aged 0-4 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,797,682 X 0.00107 = 3,003 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2651 – 3,003 = -352 or 352 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,651 ÷ 3,003 = 0.8746 or a decrease of 13%

in deaths from All Causes among pre-school girls aged 0-4 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.