2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 55-59 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 55-59 in Ontario

1. 2,074 of 2,074 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 0% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,070 of 2,070 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 4 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,160 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 0% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,074 of 523,312 women aged 55-59 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

2,074 ÷ 523,312 = 0.00396 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 23,556 deaths from All Causes among 5,955,018 women aged 55-59 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

23,556 ÷ 5,955,018 = 0.00396 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

523,312 X 0.00396 = 2,070 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,074 – 2,070 = 4

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,074 ÷ 2,070 = 0.9994

This reveals 4 lives lost and is 99.94% of what we expected (an increase of 0%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

13,344 ÷ 3,667,628 = 0.00364 (5-yr CDR)

523,312(2022 pop) X 0.00364 = 1,904 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,074 – 1,904 = 170 or 170 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,074 ÷ 1,904 = 1.0863 or an increase of 9%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,190,940 X 0.00396 = 16,578 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

15418 – 16,578 = -1,160 or 1,160 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

15,418 ÷ 16,578 = 0.9277 or a decrease of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.