2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 75-79 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 75-79 in Ontario

1. 5,857 of 5,857 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 28% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 8,086 of 8,086 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 2,229 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 11,878 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 28% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 5,857 of 282,226 elderly women aged 75-79 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

5,857 ÷ 282,226 = 0.02075 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 82,374 deaths from All Causes among 2,875,102 elderly women aged 75-79 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

82,374 ÷ 2,875,102 = 0.02865 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

282,226 X 0.02865 = 8,086 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

5,857 – 8,086 = -2,229

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

5,857 ÷ 8,086 = 0.7241

This reveals 2,229 lives saved and is 72.41% of what we expected (a decrease of 28%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

36,977 ÷ 1,627,379 = 0.02272 (5-yr CDR)

282,226(2022 pop) X 0.02272 = 6,413 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5,857 – 6,413 = -556 or 556 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

5,857 ÷ 6,413 = 0.9129 or a decrease of 9%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,909,605 X 0.02865 = 54,712 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

42834 – 54,712 = -11,878 or 11,878 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

42,834 ÷ 54,712 = 0.7826 or a decrease of 22%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.