2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 90+ | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 90+ in Ontario

1. 17,118 of 17,118 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 14% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 15,001 of 15,001 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 2,117 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 4,501 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 14% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 17,118 of 93,924 elderly women aged 90+ living in Ontario died from All Causes.

17,118 ÷ 93,924 = 0.18225 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 115,006 deaths from All Causes among 720,051 elderly women aged 90+ living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

115,006 ÷ 720,051 = 0.15972 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

93,924 X 0.15972 = 15,001 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

17,118 – 15,001 = 2,117

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

17,118 ÷ 15,001 = 1.1410

This reveals 2,117 lives lost and is 114.10% of what we expected (an increase of 14%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

98,152 ÷ 599,598 = 0.16370 (5-yr CDR)

93,924(2022 pop) X 0.16370 = 15,375 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

17,118 – 15,375 = 1,743 or 1,743 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

17,118 ÷ 15,375 = 1.1133 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

693,522 X 0.15972 = 110,769 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

115270 – 110,769 = 4,501 or 4,501 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

115,270 ÷ 110,769 = 1.0406 or an increase of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.