2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 30-34 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 30-34 in Ontario

1. 584 of 584 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 31% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 440 of 440 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 144 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 759 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 31% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 584 of 561,758 men aged 30-34 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

584 ÷ 561,758 = 0.00104 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,096 deaths from All Causes among 6,505,596 men aged 30-34 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,096 ÷ 6,505,596 = 0.00078 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

561,758 X 0.00078 = 440 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

584 – 440 = 144

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

584 ÷ 440 = 1.3104

This reveals 144 lives lost and is 131.04% of what we expected (an increase of 31%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,316 ÷ 3,448,580 = 0.00096 (5-yr CDR)

561,758(2022 pop) X 0.00096 = 540 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

584 – 540 = 44 or 44 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

584 ÷ 540 = 1.0700 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,010,338 X 0.00078 = 3,141 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3900 – 3,141 = 759 or 759 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,900 ÷ 3,141 = 1.2258 or an increase of 23%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.