2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 45-49 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Ontario

1. 1,084 of 1,084 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,125 of 1,125 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 41 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 831 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,084 of 446,204 men aged 45-49 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

1,084 ÷ 446,204 = 0.00243 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 18,935 deaths from All Causes among 7,513,126 men aged 45-49 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

18,935 ÷ 7,513,126 = 0.00252 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

446,204 X 0.00252 = 1,125 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,084 – 1,125 = -41

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,084 ÷ 1,125 = 0.9601

This reveals 41 lives saved and is 96.01% of what we expected (a decrease of 4%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

7,411 ÷ 3,254,194 = 0.00228 (5-yr CDR)

446,204(2022 pop) X 0.00228 = 1,016 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,084 – 1,016 = 68 or 68 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,084 ÷ 1,016 = 1.0621 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,700,398 X 0.00252 = 9,326 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

8495 – 9,326 = -831 or 831 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

8,495 ÷ 9,326 = 0.9073 or a decrease of 9%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.