2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 70-74 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in Ontario

1. 7,065 of 7,065 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 19% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 8,747 of 8,747 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,682 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 14,065 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 19% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 7,065 of 329,862 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

7,065 ÷ 329,862 = 0.02142 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 77,742 deaths from All Causes among 2,931,745 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

77,742 ÷ 2,931,745 = 0.02652 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

329,862 X 0.02652 = 8,747 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

7,065 – 8,747 = -1,682

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

7,065 ÷ 8,747 = 0.8074

This reveals 1,682 lives saved and is 80.74% of what we expected (a decrease of 19%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

40,827 ÷ 2,006,596 = 0.02035 (5-yr CDR)

329,862(2022 pop) X 0.02035 = 6,712 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7,065 – 6,712 = 353 or 353 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

7,065 ÷ 6,712 = 1.0522 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,336,458 X 0.02652 = 61,957 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

47892 – 61,957 = -14,065 or 14,065 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

47,892 ÷ 61,957 = 0.7727 or a decrease of 23%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.