2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 75-79 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 75-79 in Ontario

1. 7,737 of 7,737 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 26% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 10,495 of 10,495 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 2,758 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 16,389 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 26% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 7,737 of 241,500 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

7,737 ÷ 241,500 = 0.03204 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 98,247 deaths from All Causes among 2,260,794 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

98,247 ÷ 2,260,794 = 0.04346 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

241,500 X 0.04346 = 10,495 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

7,737 – 10,495 = -2,758

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

7,737 ÷ 10,495 = 0.7371

This reveals 2,758 lives saved and is 73.71% of what we expected (a decrease of 26%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

46,115 ÷ 1,374,834 = 0.03354 (5-yr CDR)

241,500(2022 pop) X 0.03354 = 8,100 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7,737 – 8,100 = -363 or 363 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

7,737 ÷ 8,100 = 0.9548 or a decrease of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,616,334 X 0.04346 = 70,241 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

53852 – 70,241 = -16,389 or 16,389 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

53,852 ÷ 70,241 = 0.7665 or a decrease of 23%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.