2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 85-89 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 85-89 in Ontario

1. 9,870 of 9,870 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 1% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 9,940 of 9,940 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 70 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 6,042 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 1% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 9,870 of 85,806 elderly men aged 85-89 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

9,870 ÷ 85,806 = 0.11503 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 82,774 deaths from All Causes among 714,553 elderly men aged 85-89 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

82,774 ÷ 714,553 = 0.11584 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

85,806 X 0.11584 = 9,940 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

9,870 – 9,940 = -70

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

9,870 ÷ 9,940 = 0.9929

This reveals 70 lives saved and is 99.29% of what we expected (a decrease of 1%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

57,156 ÷ 544,962 = 0.10488 (5-yr CDR)

85,806(2022 pop) X 0.10488 = 8,999 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9,870 – 8,999 = 871 or 871 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

9,870 ÷ 8,999 = 1.0966 or an increase of 10%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

630,768 X 0.11584 = 73,068 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

67026 – 73,068 = -6,042 or 6,042 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

67,026 ÷ 73,068 = 0.9172 or a decrease of 8%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.