2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 90+ | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 90+ in Ontario

1. 9,344 of 9,344 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 8,532 of 8,532 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 812 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 697 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 9,344 of 45,425 elderly men aged 90+ living in Ontario died from All Causes.

9,344 ÷ 45,425 = 0.20570 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 48,875 deaths from All Causes among 260,218 elderly men aged 90+ living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

48,875 ÷ 260,218 = 0.18782 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

45,425 X 0.18782 = 8,532 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

9,344 – 8,532 = 812

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

9,344 ÷ 8,532 = 1.0951

This reveals 812 lives lost and is 109.51% of what we expected (an increase of 10%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

49,633 ÷ 264,866 = 0.18739 (5-yr CDR)

45,425(2022 pop) X 0.18739 = 8,512 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9,344 – 8,512 = 832 or 832 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

9,344 ÷ 8,512 = 1.0977 or an increase of 10%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

310,291 X 0.18782 = 58,280 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

58977 – 58,280 = 697 or 697 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

58,977 ÷ 58,280 = 1.0119 or an increase of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.