2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 60-64 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 60-64 in Quebec

1. 1,853 of 1,853 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,096 of 2,096 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 243 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,921 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,853 of 315,451 women aged 60-64 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

1,853 ÷ 315,451 = 0.00587 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 22,113 deaths from All Causes among 3,328,740 women aged 60-64 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

22,113 ÷ 3,328,740 = 0.00664 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

315,451 X 0.00664 = 2,096 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,853 – 2,096 = -243

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,853 ÷ 2,096 = 0.8829

This reveals 243 lives saved and is 88.29% of what we expected (a decrease of 12%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

12,165 ÷ 2,083,836 = 0.00584 (5-yr CDR)

315,451(2022 pop) X 0.00584 = 1,842 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,853 – 1,842 = 11 or 11 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,853 ÷ 1,842 = 1.0045 or an increase of 0%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,399,287 X 0.00664 = 15,939 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

14018 – 15,939 = -1,921 or 1,921 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

14,018 ÷ 15,939 = 0.8782 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.