2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 70-74 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 70-74 in Quebec

1. 3,622 of 3,622 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,011 of 4,011 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 389 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 3,397 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,622 of 233,972 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

3,622 ÷ 233,972 = 0.01548 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 38,467 deaths from All Causes among 2,243,688 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

38,467 ÷ 2,243,688 = 0.01714 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

233,972 X 0.01714 = 4,011 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,622 – 4,011 = -389

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,622 ÷ 4,011 = 0.9024

This reveals 389 lives saved and is 90.24% of what we expected (a decrease of 10%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

22,022 ÷ 1,459,944 = 0.01508 (5-yr CDR)

233,972(2022 pop) X 0.01508 = 3,529 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,622 – 3,529 = 93 or 93 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,622 ÷ 3,529 = 1.0256 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,693,916 X 0.01714 = 29,041 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

25644 – 29,041 = -3,397 or 3,397 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

25,644 ÷ 29,041 = 0.8825 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.