2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 85-89 | Saskatchewan, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 85-89 in Saskatchewan

1. 1,789 of 1,789 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 15% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,549 of 1,549 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 240 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 496 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 15% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,789 of 15,195 elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Saskatchewan died from All Causes.

1,789 ÷ 15,195 = 0.11774 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 23,115 deaths from All Causes among 226,689 elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Saskatchewan in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

23,115 ÷ 226,689 = 0.10197 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

15,195 X 0.10197 = 1,549 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,789 – 1,549 = 240

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,789 ÷ 1,549 = 1.1545

This reveals 240 lives lost and is 115.45% of what we expected (an increase of 15%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Saskatchewan in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,653 ÷ 111,689 = 0.09538 (5-yr CDR)

15,195(2022 pop) X 0.09538 = 1,449 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,789 – 1,449 = 340 or 340 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,789 ÷ 1,449 = 1.2342 or an increase of 23%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Saskatchewan in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

126,884 X 0.10197 = 12,938 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12442 – 12,938 = -496 or 496 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

12,442 ÷ 12,938 = 0.9616 or a decrease of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Saskatchewan in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.