2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 50-54 | Saskatchewan, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 50-54 in Saskatchewan

1. 180 of 180 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.99% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 21% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 149 of 149 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 31 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 175 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 21% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 180 of 33,113 men aged 50-54 living in Saskatchewan died from All Causes.

180 ÷ 33,113 = 0.00544 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,316 deaths from All Causes among 514,875 men aged 50-54 living in Saskatchewan in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,316 ÷ 514,875 = 0.00450 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

33,113 X 0.00450 = 149 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

180 – 149 = 31

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

180 ÷ 149 = 1.2058

This reveals 31 lives lost and is 120.58% of what we expected (an increase of 21%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Saskatchewan in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,289 ÷ 254,586 = 0.00506 (5-yr CDR)

33,113(2022 pop) X 0.00506 = 168 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

180 – 168 = 12 or 12 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

180 ÷ 168 = 1.0715 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Saskatchewan in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

287,699 X 0.00450 = 1,294 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1469 – 1,294 = 175 or 175 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,469 ÷ 1,294 = 1.1326 or an increase of 13%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Saskatchewan in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.