2022 Deaths – All Causes – Elderly Men And Women – Ages 80+ | Alabama, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80+ in Alabama

1. 21,905 of 21,905 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 3% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 22,533 of 22,533 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 628 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,303 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 3% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 21,905 of 105,534 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Alabama died from All Causes.

21,905 ÷ 105,534 = 0.20756 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 275,594 deaths from All Causes among 1,290,747 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Alabama in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

275,594 ÷ 1,290,747 = 0.21352 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

105,534 X 0.21352 = 22,533 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

21,905 – 22,533 = -628

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

21,905 ÷ 22,533 = 0.9721

This reveals 628 lives saved and is 97.21% of what we expected (a decrease of 3%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

145,759 ÷ 685,824 = 0.21253 (5-yr CDR)

105,534(2022 pop) X 0.21253 = 22,429 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

21,905 – 22,429 = -524 or 524 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

21,905 ÷ 22,429 = 0.9766 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

791,358 X 0.21352 = 168,967 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

167664 – 168,967 = -1,303 or 1,303 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

167,664 ÷ 168,967 = 0.9922 or a decrease of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Alabama in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.