2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 45-49 | Alabama, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Alabama

1. 1,011 of 1,011 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 17% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 864 of 864 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 147 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 383 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 17% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,011 of 144,399 men aged 45-49 living in Alabama died from All Causes.

1,011 ÷ 144,399 = 0.00700 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 14,645 deaths from All Causes among 2,446,643 men aged 45-49 living in Alabama in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

14,645 ÷ 2,446,643 = 0.00599 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

144,399 X 0.00599 = 864 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,011 – 864 = 147

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,011 ÷ 864 = 1.1677

This reveals 147 lives lost and is 116.77% of what we expected (an increase of 17%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,518 ÷ 1,049,426 = 0.00621 (5-yr CDR)

144,399(2022 pop) X 0.00621 = 897 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,011 – 897 = 114 or 114 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,011 ÷ 897 = 1.1254 or an increase of 13%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,193,825 X 0.00599 = 7,146 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7529 – 7,146 = 383 or 383 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,529 ÷ 7,146 = 1.0518 or an increase of 5%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Alabama in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.