2022 Deaths – All Causes – Elderly Men And Women – Ages 75-79 | Alaska, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 75-79 in Alaska

1. 668 of 668 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 9% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 733 of 733 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 65 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 561 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 9% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 668 of 17,700 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Alaska died from All Causes.

668 ÷ 17,700 = 0.03774 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,301 deaths from All Causes among 127,982 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Alaska in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,301 ÷ 127,982 = 0.04142 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

17,700 X 0.04142 = 733 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

668 – 733 = -65

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

668 ÷ 733 = 0.9109

This reveals 65 lives saved and is 91.09% of what we expected (a decrease of 9%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Alaska in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,480 ÷ 95,989 = 0.03625 (5-yr CDR)

17,700(2022 pop) X 0.03625 = 642 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

668 – 642 = 26 or 26 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

668 ÷ 642 = 1.0407 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Alaska in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

113,689 X 0.04142 = 4,709 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4148 – 4,709 = -561 or 561 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,148 ÷ 4,709 = 0.8807 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Alaska in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.