2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 25-29 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 25-29 in Arizona

1. 840 of 840 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 49% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 558 of 558 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 282 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,585 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 49% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 25-29 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 840 of 507,896 people aged 25-29 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

840 ÷ 507,896 = 0.00165 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 6,965 deaths from All Causes among 6,336,068 people aged 25-29 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

6,965 ÷ 6,336,068 = 0.00110 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

507,896 X 0.00110 = 558 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

840 – 558 = 282

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

840 ÷ 558 = 1.4910

This reveals 282 lives lost and is 149.10% of what we expected (an increase of 49%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 25-29 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,181 ÷ 3,527,182 = 0.00147 (5-yr CDR)

507,896(2022 pop) X 0.00147 = 746 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

840 – 746 = 94 or 94 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

840 ÷ 746 = 1.1183 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 25-29 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,035,078 X 0.00110 = 4,436 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6021 – 4,436 = 1,585 or 1,585 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,021 ÷ 4,436 = 1.3452 or an increase of 35%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 25-29 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.