2022 Deaths – All Causes – Baby Girl – Under 1 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for baby girls in their first year of life in Arizona

1. 204 of 204 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 11% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 229 of 229 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 25 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 319 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 11% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many baby girls in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 204 of 38,575 baby girls in their first year of life living in Arizona died from All Causes.

204 ÷ 38,575 = 0.00529 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 3,831 deaths from All Causes among 646,619 baby girls in their first year of life living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,831 ÷ 646,619 = 0.00592 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

38,575 X 0.00592 = 229 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

204 – 229 = -25

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

204 ÷ 229 = 0.8911

This reveals 25 lives saved and is 89.11% of what we expected (a decrease of 11%) in deaths from All Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,393 ÷ 284,798 = 0.00489 (5-yr CDR)

38,575(2022 pop) X 0.00489 = 189 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

204 – 189 = 15 or 15 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

204 ÷ 189 = 1.0790 or an increase of 8%

for deaths from All Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

323,373 X 0.00592 = 1,916 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1597 – 1,916 = -319 or 319 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,597 ÷ 1,916 = 0.8322 or a decrease of 17%

in deaths from All Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.