2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 25-29 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 25-29 in Arizona

1. 621 of 621 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 47% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 420 of 420 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 201 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,096 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 47% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 25-29 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 621 of 264,533 men aged 25-29 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

621 ÷ 264,533 = 0.00235 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,192 deaths from All Causes among 3,273,165 men aged 25-29 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,192 ÷ 3,273,165 = 0.00159 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

264,533 X 0.00159 = 420 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

621 – 420 = 201

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

621 ÷ 420 = 1.4707

This reveals 201 lives lost and is 147.07% of what we expected (an increase of 47%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 25-29 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,799 ÷ 1,831,071 = 0.00207 (5-yr CDR)

264,533(2022 pop) X 0.00207 = 549 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

621 – 549 = 72 or 72 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

621 ÷ 549 = 1.1261 or an increase of 13%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 25-29 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,095,604 X 0.00159 = 3,324 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4420 – 3,324 = 1,096 or 1,096 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,420 ÷ 3,324 = 1.3213 or an increase of 32%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 25-29 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.