2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – All Ages | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men of all ages in Arizona

1. 40,550 of 40,550 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 38% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 29,341 of 29,341 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 11,209 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 54,823 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 38% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men of all ages were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 40,550 of 3,617,578 men of all ages living in Arizona died from All Causes.

40,550 ÷ 3,617,578 = 0.01121 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 360,944 deaths from All Causes among 44,501,637 men of all ages living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

360,944 ÷ 44,501,637 = 0.00811 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

3,617,578 X 0.00811 = 29,341 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

40,550 – 29,341 = 11,209

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

40,550 ÷ 29,341 = 1.3803

This reveals 11,209 lives lost and is 138.03% of what we expected (an increase of 38%) in deaths from All Causes among men of all ages living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

241,713 ÷ 24,424,039 = 0.00990 (5-yr CDR)

3,617,578(2022 pop) X 0.00990 = 35,801 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

40,550 – 35,801 = 4,749 or 4,749 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

40,550 ÷ 35,801 = 1.1315 or an increase of 13%

for deaths from All Causes among men of all ages living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

28,041,617 X 0.00811 = 227,440 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

282263 – 227,440 = 54,823 or 54,823 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

282,263 ÷ 227,440 = 1.2395 or an increase of 24%

in deaths from All Causes among men of all ages living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.