2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 75-79 | Arkansas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 75-79 in Arkansas

1. 2,421 of 2,421 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,163 of 2,163 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 258 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 277 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,421 of 57,476 elderly women aged 75-79 living in Arkansas died from All Causes.

2,421 ÷ 57,476 = 0.04212 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 24,937 deaths from All Causes among 662,738 elderly women aged 75-79 living in Arkansas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

24,937 ÷ 662,738 = 0.03763 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

57,476 X 0.03763 = 2,163 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,421 – 2,163 = 258

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,421 ÷ 2,163 = 1.1192

This reveals 258 lives lost and is 111.92% of what we expected (an increase of 12%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

13,564 ÷ 359,986 = 0.03768 (5-yr CDR)

57,476(2022 pop) X 0.03768 = 2,166 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,421 – 2,166 = 255 or 255 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,421 ÷ 2,166 = 1.1176 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

417,462 X 0.03763 = 15,708 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

15985 – 15,708 = 277 or 277 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

15,985 ÷ 15,708 = 1.0174 or an increase of 2%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Arkansas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.