2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 60-64 | Arkansas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 60-64 in Arkansas

1. 1,913 of 1,913 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 19% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,606 of 1,606 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 307 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,625 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 19% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,913 of 93,297 men aged 60-64 living in Arkansas died from All Causes.

1,913 ÷ 93,297 = 0.02050 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 18,433 deaths from All Causes among 1,070,710 men aged 60-64 living in Arkansas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

18,433 ÷ 1,070,710 = 0.01722 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

93,297 X 0.01722 = 1,606 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,913 – 1,606 = 307

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,913 ÷ 1,606 = 1.1903

This reveals 307 lives lost and is 119.03% of what we expected (an increase of 19%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

11,986 ÷ 619,641 = 0.01934 (5-yr CDR)

93,297(2022 pop) X 0.01934 = 1,805 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,913 – 1,805 = 108 or 108 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,913 ÷ 1,805 = 1.0595 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

712,938 X 0.01722 = 12,274 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

13899 – 12,274 = 1,625 or 1,625 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

13,899 ÷ 12,274 = 1.1318 or an increase of 13%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Arkansas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.