2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – All Ages | Arkansas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men of all ages in Arkansas

1. 19,888 of 19,888 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 27% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 15,707 of 15,707 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 4,181 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 20,912 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 27% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men of all ages were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 19,888 of 1,484,596 men of all ages living in Arkansas died from All Causes.

19,888 ÷ 1,484,596 = 0.01340 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 217,926 deaths from All Causes among 20,598,581 men of all ages living in Arkansas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

217,926 ÷ 20,598,581 = 0.01058 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,484,596 X 0.01058 = 15,707 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

19,888 – 15,707 = 4,181

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

19,888 ÷ 15,707 = 1.2650

This reveals 4,181 lives lost and is 126.50% of what we expected (an increase of 27%) in deaths from All Causes among men of all ages living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

124,695 ÷ 10,204,913 = 0.01222 (5-yr CDR)

1,484,596(2022 pop) X 0.01222 = 18,140 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

19,888 – 18,140 = 1,748 or 1,748 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

19,888 ÷ 18,140 = 1.0954 or an increase of 10%

for deaths from All Causes among men of all ages living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

11,689,509 X 0.01058 = 123,671 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

144583 – 123,671 = 20,912 or 20,912 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

144,583 ÷ 123,671 = 1.1680 or an increase of 17%

in deaths from All Causes among men of all ages living in Arkansas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.