2022 Deaths – All Causes – Teen-aged – 15-19 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teens aged 15-19 in California

1. 1,131 of 1,131 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,262 of 1,262 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 131 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,369 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teens aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,131 of 2,564,615 teens aged 15-19 living in California died from All Causes.

1,131 ÷ 2,564,615 = 0.00044 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 19,723 deaths from All Causes among 40,078,657 teens aged 15-19 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

19,723 ÷ 40,078,657 = 0.00049 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,564,615 X 0.00049 = 1,262 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,131 – 1,262 = -131

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,131 ÷ 1,262 = 0.8783

This reveals 131 lives saved and is 87.83% of what we expected (a decrease of 12%) in deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

7,574 ÷ 17,907,428 = 0.00042 (5-yr CDR)

2,564,615(2022 pop) X 0.00042 = 1,085 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,131 – 1,085 = 46 or 46 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,131 ÷ 1,085 = 1.0186 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

20,472,043 X 0.00049 = 10,074 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

8705 – 10,074 = -1,369 or 1,369 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

8,705 ÷ 10,074 = 0.8469 or a decrease of 15%

in deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.