2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 45-49 | District Of Columbia, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 45-49 in District Of Columbia

1. 56 of 56 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.98% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 36% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 88 of 88 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 32 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 257 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 36% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 56 of 18,317 women aged 45-49 living in District Of Columbia died from All Causes.

56 ÷ 18,317 = 0.00306 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,403 deaths from All Causes among 292,379 women aged 45-49 living in District Of Columbia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,403 ÷ 292,379 = 0.00480 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

18,317 X 0.00480 = 88 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

56 – 88 = -32

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

56 ÷ 88 = 0.6358

This reveals 32 lives saved and is 63.58% of what we expected (a decrease of 36%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in District Of Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

416 ÷ 133,695 = 0.00311 (5-yr CDR)

18,317(2022 pop) X 0.00311 = 57 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

56 – 57 = -1 or 1 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

56 ÷ 57 = 0.9794 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in District Of Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

152,012 X 0.00480 = 729 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

472 – 729 = -257 or 257 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

472 ÷ 729 = 0.6457 or a decrease of 35%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in District Of Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.