2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80+ | Hawaii, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80+ in Hawaii

1. 6,260 of 6,260 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 18% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 5,290 of 5,290 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 970 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 7,348 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 18% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 6,260 of 33,280 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Hawaii died from All Causes.

6,260 ÷ 33,280 = 0.18810 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 66,308 deaths from All Causes among 417,184 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Hawaii in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

66,308 ÷ 417,184 = 0.15894 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

33,280 X 0.15894 = 5,290 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

6,260 – 5,290 = 970

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

6,260 ÷ 5,290 = 1.1834

This reveals 970 lives lost and is 118.34% of what we expected (an increase of 18%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Hawaii in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

38,763 ÷ 203,758 = 0.19024 (5-yr CDR)

33,280(2022 pop) X 0.19024 = 6,331 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6,260 – 6,331 = -71 or 71 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

6,260 ÷ 6,331 = 0.9887 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Hawaii in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

237,038 X 0.15894 = 37,675 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

45023 – 37,675 = 7,348 or 7,348 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

45,023 ÷ 37,675 = 1.1950 or an increase of 19%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Hawaii in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.