2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 80+ | Hawaii, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 80+ in Hawaii

1. 3,571 of 3,571 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 32% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,705 of 2,705 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 866 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 5,880 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 32% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,571 of 18,744 elderly women aged 80+ living in Hawaii died from All Causes.

3,571 ÷ 18,744 = 0.19051 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 35,300 deaths from All Causes among 244,591 elderly women aged 80+ living in Hawaii in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

35,300 ÷ 244,591 = 0.14432 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

18,744 X 0.14432 = 2,705 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,571 – 2,705 = 866

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,571 ÷ 2,705 = 1.3200

This reveals 866 lives lost and is 132.00% of what we expected (an increase of 32%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Hawaii in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

22,020 ÷ 117,833 = 0.18687 (5-yr CDR)

18,744(2022 pop) X 0.18687 = 3,503 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,571 – 3,503 = 68 or 68 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,571 ÷ 3,503 = 1.0194 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Hawaii in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

136,577 X 0.14432 = 19,711 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

25591 – 19,711 = 5,880 or 5,880 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

25,591 ÷ 19,711 = 1.2982 or an increase of 30%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Hawaii in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.