2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 20-24 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 20-24 in Illinois

1. 833 of 833 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 776 of 776 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 57 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 586 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 20-24 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 833 of 850,012 people aged 20-24 living in Illinois died from All Causes.

833 ÷ 850,012 = 0.00098 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 12,096 deaths from All Causes among 13,257,403 people aged 20-24 living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

12,096 ÷ 13,257,403 = 0.00091 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

850,012 X 0.00091 = 776 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

833 – 776 = 57

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

833 ÷ 776 = 1.0624

This reveals 57 lives lost and is 106.24% of what we expected (an increase of 6%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 20-24 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,967 ÷ 5,961,171 = 0.00100 (5-yr CDR)

850,012(2022 pop) X 0.00100 = 851 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

833 – 851 = -18 or 18 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

833 ÷ 851 = 0.9693 or a decrease of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 20-24 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

6,811,183 X 0.00091 = 6,214 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6800 – 6,214 = 586 or 586 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,800 ÷ 6,214 = 1.0824 or an increase of 8%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 20-24 living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.