2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 30-34 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 30-34 in Illinois

1. 431 of 431 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 56% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 272 of 272 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 159 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 775 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 56% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 431 of 424,584 women aged 30-34 living in Illinois died from All Causes.

431 ÷ 424,584 = 0.00102 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,234 deaths from All Causes among 6,610,391 women aged 30-34 living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,234 ÷ 6,610,391 = 0.00064 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

424,584 X 0.00064 = 272 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

431 – 272 = 159

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

431 ÷ 272 = 1.5605

This reveals 159 lives lost and is 156.05% of what we expected (an increase of 56%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 30-34 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,548 ÷ 3,016,656 = 0.00084 (5-yr CDR)

424,584(2022 pop) X 0.00084 = 359 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

431 – 359 = 72 or 72 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

431 ÷ 359 = 1.1878 or an increase of 19%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 30-34 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,441,240 X 0.00064 = 2,204 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2979 – 2,204 = 775 or 775 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,979 ÷ 2,204 = 1.3308 or an increase of 33%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 30-34 living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.