2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 70-74 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 70-74 in Illinois

1. 5,933 of 5,933 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 7% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 6,409 of 6,409 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 476 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 4,647 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 7% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 5,933 of 300,448 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Illinois died from All Causes.

5,933 ÷ 300,448 = 0.01975 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 65,349 deaths from All Causes among 3,063,512 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

65,349 ÷ 3,063,512 = 0.02133 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

300,448 X 0.02133 = 6,409 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

5,933 – 6,409 = -476

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

5,933 ÷ 6,409 = 0.9253

This reveals 476 lives saved and is 92.53% of what we expected (a decrease of 7%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

35,670 ÷ 1,867,702 = 0.01910 (5-yr CDR)

300,448(2022 pop) X 0.01910 = 5,738 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5,933 – 5,738 = 195 or 195 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

5,933 ÷ 5,738 = 1.0334 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,168,150 X 0.02133 = 46,250 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

41603 – 46,250 = -4,647 or 4,647 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

41,603 ÷ 46,250 = 0.8991 or a decrease of 10%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.