2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 75-79 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 75-79 in Illinois

1. 7,841 of 7,841 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 11% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 8,768 of 8,768 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 927 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 6,611 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 11% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 7,841 of 175,526 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Illinois died from All Causes.

7,841 ÷ 175,526 = 0.04467 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 94,960 deaths from All Causes among 1,901,104 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

94,960 ÷ 1,901,104 = 0.04995 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

175,526 X 0.04995 = 8,768 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

7,841 – 8,768 = -927

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

7,841 ÷ 8,768 = 0.8941

This reveals 927 lives saved and is 89.41% of what we expected (a decrease of 11%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

46,544 ÷ 1,045,627 = 0.04451 (5-yr CDR)

175,526(2022 pop) X 0.04451 = 7,813 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7,841 – 7,813 = 28 or 28 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

7,841 ÷ 7,813 = 1.0033 or an increase of 0%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,221,153 X 0.04995 = 60,996 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

54385 – 60,996 = -6,611 or 6,611 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

54,385 ÷ 60,996 = 0.8914 or a decrease of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.