2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80+ | Iowa, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80+ in Iowa

1. 15,929 of 15,929 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 14,465 of 14,465 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,464 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 12,233 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 15,929 of 68,303 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Iowa died from All Causes.

15,929 ÷ 68,303 = 0.23321 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 221,642 deaths from All Causes among 1,046,579 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Iowa in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

221,642 ÷ 1,046,579 = 0.21178 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

68,303 X 0.21178 = 14,465 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

15,929 – 14,465 = 1,464

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

15,929 ÷ 14,465 = 1.1012

This reveals 1,464 lives lost and is 110.12% of what we expected (an increase of 10%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Iowa in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

109,931 ÷ 468,234 = 0.23478 (5-yr CDR)

68,303(2022 pop) X 0.23478 = 16,036 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

15,929 – 16,036 = -107 or 107 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

15,929 ÷ 16,036 = 0.9933 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Iowa in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

536,537 X 0.21178 = 113,627 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

125860 – 113,627 = 12,233 or 12,233 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

125,860 ÷ 113,627 = 1.1076 or an increase of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Iowa in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.