2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 75-79 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 75-79 in Kentucky

1. 3,610 of 3,610 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,285 of 3,285 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 325 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 588 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,610 of 81,846 elderly women aged 75-79 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

3,610 ÷ 81,846 = 0.04411 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 37,146 deaths from All Causes among 925,408 elderly women aged 75-79 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

37,146 ÷ 925,408 = 0.04014 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

81,846 X 0.04014 = 3,285 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,610 – 3,285 = 325

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,610 ÷ 3,285 = 1.0986

This reveals 325 lives lost and is 109.86% of what we expected (an increase of 10%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

20,405 ÷ 501,786 = 0.04066 (5-yr CDR)

81,846(2022 pop) X 0.04066 = 3,328 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,610 – 3,328 = 282 or 282 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,610 ÷ 3,328 = 1.0844 or an increase of 8%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

583,632 X 0.04014 = 23,427 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

24015 – 23,427 = 588 or 588 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

24,015 ÷ 23,427 = 1.0248 or an increase of 2%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.