2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 80+ | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 80+ in Kentucky

1. 11,689 of 11,689 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 11,133 of 11,133 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 556 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 3,663 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 11,689 of 52,046 elderly women aged 80+ living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

11,689 ÷ 52,046 = 0.22459 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 151,499 deaths from All Causes among 708,245 elderly women aged 80+ living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

151,499 ÷ 708,245 = 0.21391 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

52,046 X 0.21391 = 11,133 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

11,689 – 11,133 = 556

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

11,689 ÷ 11,133 = 1.0499

This reveals 556 lives lost and is 104.99% of what we expected (an increase of 5%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

76,519 ÷ 343,193 = 0.22296 (5-yr CDR)

52,046(2022 pop) X 0.22296 = 11,604 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

11,689 – 11,604 = 85 or 85 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

11,689 ÷ 11,604 = 1.0073 or an increase of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

395,239 X 0.21391 = 84,545 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

88208 – 84,545 = 3,663 or 3,663 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

88,208 ÷ 84,545 = 1.0433 or an increase of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.