2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 80-84 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 80-84 in Kentucky

1. 3,798 of 3,798 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,453 of 3,453 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 345 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 104 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,798 of 52,046 elderly women aged 80-84 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

3,798 ÷ 52,046 = 0.07297 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 46,988 deaths from All Causes among 708,245 elderly women aged 80-84 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

46,988 ÷ 708,245 = 0.06634 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

52,046 X 0.06634 = 3,453 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,798 – 3,453 = 345

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,798 ÷ 3,453 = 1.0998

This reveals 345 lives lost and is 109.98% of what we expected (an increase of 10%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80-84 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

22,320 ÷ 343,193 = 0.06504 (5-yr CDR)

52,046(2022 pop) X 0.06504 = 3,385 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,798 – 3,385 = 413 or 413 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,798 ÷ 3,385 = 1.1219 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80-84 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

395,239 X 0.06634 = 26,222 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

26118 – 26,222 = -104 or 104 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

26,118 ÷ 26,222 = 0.9959 or a decrease of 0%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80-84 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.