2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 15-19 | Maryland, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teens aged 15-19 in Maryland

1. 165 of 232 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 71.12% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 169 of 230 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 4 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 2 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 199 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 245 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Maryland’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teens aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 165 of 388,243 teens aged 15-19 living in Maryland died from Unknown Causes.

165 ÷ 388,243 = 0.00042 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,561 deaths from Unknown Causes among 5,895,157 teens aged 15-19 living in Maryland in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,561 ÷ 5,895,157 = 0.00043 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

388,243 X 0.00043 = 169 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

165 – 169 = -4

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

165 ÷ 169 = 0.9563

This reveals 4 lives saved and is 95.63% of what we expected (a decrease of 4%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Maryland in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

972 ÷ 2,687,929 = 0.00036 (5-yr CDR)

388,243(2022 pop) X 0.00036 = 140 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

165 – 140 = 25 or 25 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

165 ÷ 140 = 1.1436 or an increase of 14%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Maryland in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,076,172 X 0.00043 = 1,336 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1137 – 1,336 = -199 or 199 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,137 ÷ 1,336 = 0.8317 or a decrease of 17%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Maryland in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.