2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | Maryland, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in Maryland

1. 1,472 of 6,019 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 24.46% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 19% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,809 of 6,876 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 337 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 857 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,938 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 6,414 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Maryland’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 19% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,472 of 270,510 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Maryland died from Unknown Causes.

1,472 ÷ 270,510 = 0.00544 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 16,047 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,399,722 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Maryland in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

16,047 ÷ 2,399,722 = 0.00669 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

270,510 X 0.00669 = 1,809 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,472 – 1,809 = -337

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,472 ÷ 1,809 = 0.8125

This reveals 337 lives saved and is 81.25% of what we expected (a decrease of 19%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Maryland in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

9,522 ÷ 1,663,425 = 0.00572 (5-yr CDR)

270,510(2022 pop) X 0.00572 = 1,548 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,472 – 1,548 = -76 or 76 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,472 ÷ 1,548 = 0.9489 or a decrease of 5%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Maryland in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,933,935 X 0.00669 = 12,932 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

10994 – 12,932 = -1,938 or 1,938 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

10,994 ÷ 12,932 = 0.8489 or a decrease of 15%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Maryland in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.