2022 Deaths – All Causes – Baby – Under 1 | Massachusetts, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for babies in their first year of life in Massachusetts

1. 227 of 227 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 33% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 340 of 340 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 113 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 603 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 33% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many babies in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 227 of 70,623 babies in their first year of life living in Massachusetts died from All Causes.

227 ÷ 70,623 = 0.00321 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 5,417 deaths from All Causes among 1,125,956 babies in their first year of life living in Massachusetts in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,417 ÷ 1,125,956 = 0.00481 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

70,623 X 0.00481 = 340 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

227 – 340 = -113

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

227 ÷ 340 = 0.6667

This reveals 113 lives saved and is 66.67% of what we expected (a decrease of 33%) in deaths from All Causes among babies in their first year of life living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,883 ÷ 493,250 = 0.00382 (5-yr CDR)

70,623(2022 pop) X 0.00382 = 270 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

227 – 270 = -43 or 43 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

227 ÷ 270 = 0.8398 or a decrease of 16%

for deaths from All Causes among babies in their first year of life living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

563,873 X 0.00481 = 2,713 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2110 – 2,713 = -603 or 603 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,110 ÷ 2,713 = 0.7762 or a decrease of 22%

in deaths from All Causes among babies in their first year of life living in Massachusetts in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.