2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 30-34 | Massachusetts, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 30-34 in Massachusetts

1. 323 of 664 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 48.64% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 307 of 431 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 16 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 233 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 107 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,072 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Massachusetts’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 323 of 492,707 people aged 30-34 living in Massachusetts died from Unknown Causes.

323 ÷ 492,707 = 0.00066 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,041 deaths from Unknown Causes among 6,491,801 people aged 30-34 living in Massachusetts in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,041 ÷ 6,491,801 = 0.00062 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

492,707 X 0.00062 = 307 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

323 – 307 = 16

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

323 ÷ 307 = 1.0365

This reveals 16 lives lost and is 103.65% of what we expected (an increase of 4%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,185 ÷ 3,363,840 = 0.00065 (5-yr CDR)

492,707(2022 pop) X 0.00065 = 320 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

323 – 320 = 3 or 3 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

323 ÷ 320 = 0.9939 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,856,547 X 0.00062 = 2,401 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2508 – 2,401 = 107 or 107 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,508 ÷ 2,401 = 1.0282 or an increase of 3%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Massachusetts in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.