2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 60-64 | Massachusetts, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 60-64 in Massachusetts

1. 1,373 of 4,150 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 33.08% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 9% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,496 of 4,243 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 123 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 93 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,149 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,706 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Massachusetts’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 9% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,373 of 471,620 people aged 60-64 living in Massachusetts died from Unknown Causes.

1,373 ÷ 471,620 = 0.00291 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 15,349 deaths from Unknown Causes among 4,838,273 people aged 60-64 living in Massachusetts in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

15,349 ÷ 4,838,273 = 0.00317 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

471,620 X 0.00317 = 1,496 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,373 – 1,496 = -123

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,373 ÷ 1,496 = 0.9148

This reveals 123 lives saved and is 91.48% of what we expected (a decrease of 9%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 60-64 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

8,837 ÷ 3,108,867 = 0.00284 (5-yr CDR)

471,620(2022 pop) X 0.00284 = 1,341 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,373 – 1,341 = 32 or 32 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,373 ÷ 1,341 = 1.0206 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 60-64 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,580,487 X 0.00317 = 11,359 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

10210 – 11,359 = -1,149 or 1,149 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

10,210 ÷ 11,359 = 0.8960 or a decrease of 10%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 60-64 living in Massachusetts in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.