2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80+ | Massachusetts, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80+ in Massachusetts

1. 5,569 of 30,325 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 18.36% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 11% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 5,012 of 29,241 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 557 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,084 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 7,374 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 24,223 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Massachusetts’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 11% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 5,569 of 142,668 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts died from Unknown Causes.

5,569 ÷ 142,668 = 0.03903 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 72,254 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,056,591 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

72,254 ÷ 2,056,591 = 0.03513 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

142,668 X 0.03513 = 5,012 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

5,569 – 5,012 = 557

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

5,569 ÷ 5,012 = 1.1107

This reveals 557 lives lost and is 111.07% of what we expected (an increase of 11%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

39,357 ÷ 926,175 = 0.04249 (5-yr CDR)

142,668(2022 pop) X 0.04249 = 6,063 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5,569 – 6,063 = -494 or 494 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

5,569 ÷ 6,063 = 0.9184 or a decrease of 8%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,068,843 X 0.03513 = 37,552 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

44926 – 37,552 = 7,374 or 7,374 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

44,926 ÷ 37,552 = 1.1960 or an increase of 20%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.