2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – 80+ | Massachusetts, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 80+ in Massachusetts

1. 3,052 of 17,939 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 17.01% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,734 of 17,342 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 318 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 597 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 4,233 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 14,458 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Massachusetts’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,052 of 83,965 elderly women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts died from Unknown Causes.

3,052 ÷ 83,965 = 0.03635 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 41,666 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,279,853 elderly women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

41,666 ÷ 1,279,853 = 0.03256 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

83,965 X 0.03256 = 2,734 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,052 – 2,734 = 318

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,052 ÷ 2,734 = 1.1162

This reveals 318 lives lost and is 111.62% of what we expected (an increase of 12%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

21,784 ÷ 548,895 = 0.03969 (5-yr CDR)

83,965(2022 pop) X 0.03969 = 3,332 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,052 – 3,332 = -280 or 280 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,052 ÷ 3,332 = 0.9156 or a decrease of 8%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

632,860 X 0.03256 = 20,603 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

24836 – 20,603 = 4,233 or 4,233 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

24,836 ÷ 20,603 = 1.2051 or an increase of 21%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Massachusetts in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.