2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Pre-school Boy – 1-4 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for pre-school boys aged 1-4 in Texas

1. 233 of 259 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 89.96% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 234 of 271 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 12 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 294 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 351 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many pre-school boys aged 1-4 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 233 of 777,914 pre-school boys aged 1-4 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

233 ÷ 777,914 = 0.00030 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 3,390 deaths from Unknown Causes among 11,278,109 pre-school boys aged 1-4 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,390 ÷ 11,278,109 = 0.00030 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

777,914 X 0.00030 = 234 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

233 – 234 = -1

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

233 ÷ 234 = 0.9644

This reveals 1 lives saved and is 96.44% of what we expected (a decrease of 4%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among pre-school boys aged 1-4 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,427 ÷ 5,722,610 = 0.00025 (5-yr CDR)

777,914(2022 pop) X 0.00025 = 194 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

233 – 194 = 39 or 39 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

233 ÷ 194 = 1.1548 or an increase of 15%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among pre-school boys aged 1-4 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

6,500,524 X 0.00030 = 1,954 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1660 – 1,954 = -294 or 294 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,660 ÷ 1,954 = 0.8222 or a decrease of 18%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among pre-school boys aged 1-4 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.