2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 75-79 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 75-79 in Texas

1. 1,642 of 15,982 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 10.27% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 15% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,924 of 16,806 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 282 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 824 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,548 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 7,108 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 15% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,642 of 335,908 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

1,642 ÷ 335,908 = 0.00489 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 17,195 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,002,369 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

17,195 ÷ 3,002,369 = 0.00573 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

335,908 X 0.00573 = 1,924 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,642 – 1,924 = -282

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,642 ÷ 1,924 = 0.8520

This reveals 282 lives saved and is 85.20% of what we expected (a decrease of 15%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

9,884 ÷ 1,946,960 = 0.00508 (5-yr CDR)

335,908(2022 pop) X 0.00508 = 1,705 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,642 – 1,705 = -63 or 63 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,642 ÷ 1,705 = 0.9610 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,282,868 X 0.00573 = 13,074 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

11526 – 13,074 = -1,548 or 1,548 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

11,526 ÷ 13,074 = 0.8800 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.