2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 15-19 | United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teens aged 15-19 in United States

1. 12,745 of 12,745 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 1% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 12,399 of 12,399 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 346 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 6,294 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 1% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teens aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 12,745 of 21,635,792 teens aged 15-19 living in United States died from All Causes.

12,745 ÷ 21,635,792 = 0.00059 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 183,520 deaths from All Causes among 320,223,390 teens aged 15-19 living in United States in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

183,520 ÷ 320,223,390 = 0.00057 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

21,635,792 X 0.00057 = 12,399 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

12,745 – 12,399 = 346

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

12,745 ÷ 12,399 = 1.0102

This reveals 346 lives lost and is 101.02% of what we expected (an increase of 1%) in deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in United States in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

78,207 ÷ 148,047,948 = 0.00053 (5-yr CDR)

21,635,792(2022 pop) X 0.00053 = 11,429 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12,745 – 11,429 = 1,316 or 1,316 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

12,745 ÷ 11,429 = 1.0944 or an increase of 9%

for deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in United States in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

169,683,740 X 0.00057 = 97,246 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

90952 – 97,246 = -6,294 or 6,294 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

90,952 ÷ 97,246 = 0.9192 or a decrease of 8%

in deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in United States in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.