2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80+ | United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80+ in United States

1. 1,350,602 of 1,350,602 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 3% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,307,936 of 1,307,936 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 42,666 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 524,646 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 3% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,350,602 of 6,659,545 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in United States died from All Causes.

1,350,602 ÷ 6,659,545 = 0.20281 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 16,409,527 deaths from All Causes among 83,551,456 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in United States in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

16,409,527 ÷ 83,551,456 = 0.19640 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

6,659,545 X 0.19640 = 1,307,936 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,350,602 – 1,307,936 = 42,666

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,350,602 ÷ 1,307,936 = 1.0326

This reveals 42,666 lives lost and is 103.26% of what we expected (an increase of 3%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in United States in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

8,895,925 ÷ 42,840,805 = 0.20765 (5-yr CDR)

6,659,545(2022 pop) X 0.20765 = 1,382,859 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,350,602 – 1,382,859 = -32,257 or 32,257 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,350,602 ÷ 1,382,859 = 0.9766 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in United States in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

49,500,350 X 0.19640 = 9,721,881 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

10246527 – 9,721,881 = 524,646 or 524,646 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

10,246,527 ÷ 9,721,881 = 1.0539 or an increase of 5%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in United States in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.