2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 45-49 | United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 45-49 in United States

1. 27,018 of 27,018 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 7% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 25,064 of 25,064 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,954 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,539 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 7% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 27,018 of 9,779,109 women aged 45-49 living in United States died from All Causes.

27,018 ÷ 9,779,109 = 0.00276 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 425,851 deaths from All Causes among 166,153,153 women aged 45-49 living in United States in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

425,851 ÷ 166,153,153 = 0.00256 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

9,779,109 X 0.00256 = 25,064 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

27,018 – 25,064 = 1,954

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

27,018 ÷ 25,064 = 1.0738

This reveals 1,954 lives lost and is 107.38% of what we expected (an increase of 7%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in United States in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

186,344 ÷ 72,477,257 = 0.00257 (5-yr CDR)

9,779,109(2022 pop) X 0.00257 = 25,143 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

27,018 – 25,143 = 1,875 or 1,875 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

27,018 ÷ 25,143 = 1.0704 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in United States in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

82,256,366 X 0.00256 = 210,823 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

213362 – 210,823 = 2,539 or 2,539 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

213,362 ÷ 210,823 = 1.0081 or an increase of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in United States in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.